Wildfires from attribution to solutions: tools and resources
Fire has always been an integral part of human civilization and a key ecosystem process. Fires influence vegetation growth, environmental conditions, and even our climate. However, a changing climate and human interactions through land change use and forest management are having an impact on the intensity and frequency of wildfires. So, what can we do about it?
From studies investigating how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios, to the impacts of increased wildfire activity on human health, and even climate change itself, there is a rapidly growing body of information on the causes and consequences of wildfires.
There is also overwhelming evidence that a warming climate — due to human activities — has gone hand in hand with increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, with over twice as much tree cover burnt today compared to just 20 years ago.
The impact of climate change on wildfires is mainly down to elevated temperatures leading to dry landscape and vegetation, which in turn leads to prime fire conditions. In fact, not only are wildfires more likely to occur in a warmer world, but they will also tend to burn with greater intensity and speed. Furthermore, climate change has altered precipitation patterns and contributed to other factors such as the proliferation of pests like bark beetles that kill trees and hence add to the accumulation of flammable material.
Fires occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. When these thresholds are lowered, such as through anomalous weather for example, then the likelihood of a fire event grows.
In this context climate change is a catalyst for increased wildfire activity as it creates more favorable conditions for these thresholds to be crossed and extends the length of fire seasons and frequency of dry years.
Yet climate change is not the only factor at play. Other major causes are things like altered ignition patterns (such as human behavior) and fuel structures (including land-use changes, fire suppression, drought-induced dieback, fragmentation).
When the thresholds are crossed, the size of a fire will largely depend on the duration of the fire weather and the extent of the available area with continuous fuels in the landscape.
Furthermore, the relationship between climate change and wildfires is not unidirectional. In essence, climate change has created a “fire-climate feedback loop”, whereby a warmer climate leads to more fires, which in turn leads to more emissions and therefore further climate change. A vicious cycle.
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Climate Foresight is published by the CMCC Foundation , a research center that develops models and predictions to study the interaction between changes in the climate system and social, economic and environmental changes. Climate Foresight is an observatory on tomorrow, a digital magazine that collects ideas, interviews, articles, art performances, and multimedia to tell the stories of the future.
