Untapped potential: Transportation’s sustainable future
The pivotal role of the transport sector in a changing climate reveals both its challenges and opportunities. With transport representing the largest energy consuming sector in 40% of countries worldwide, the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report underscores the necessity of systemic changes, from electrification in land transport to innovations in aviation and shipping fuels. AR6 offers a comprehensive roadmap, emphasizing technological advancements, effective policies, and behavioral shifts to steer transportation towards a sustainable path.
City buses in jam packed urban traffic, airplanes overhead, freight trucks, and cargo ships in ocean waters — the transport sector pictures a world interconnected and in motion. Yet, it poses a significant threat to the planet’s future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6) dedicates an entire chapter to this complex issue, revealing both the immense challenges and the vast opportunities for transformation within the transport sector.
As reported in the AR6 chapter on transportation, “meeting climate mitigation goals would require transformative changes in the transport sector”. This statement is supported by a strong set of data collected and reported in the chapter. The report points out that the transport sector accounts for around 15% of total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions at a global level. In 2019, global transport was the fourth largest source of GHG emissions, following the power, industry, and the agriculture forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors. Transport also contributes to about 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In detail, 70% of direct transport emissions came from road vehicles, 1% from rail, 11% from shipping, and 12% from aviation, with emissions from shipping and aviation rising quickly. Moreover, in developing regions, transportation-related emissions are increasing faster than in most developed countries, and this trend is likely to continue in the future.
In the context of the IPCC AR6 assessment on transport, scenarios are used to explore possible future emissions pathways for the sector, their drivers and how the possible and suggested policy interventions, highlighting the broader trends of how the transport sector may transform in order to be compliant with different warming levels.
In these scenarios, CO2 emissions from the transport sector are projected to increase between 16% and 50% by 2050 in a scenario where no intervention or mitigation efforts are implemented. The projections also indicate a “continued growth in demand for freight and passenger services, particularly in developing countries in Africa and Asia”, across all modes of transportation.
For scenarios aiming to limit warming to 1.5°C with minimal or no overshoot, a reduction of 59% in CO2 emissions from transportation by 2050 is deemed necessary compared to modeled levels from 2020.
The report also outlines various mitigation pathways that demonstrate how different strategies can impact future emissions and temperatures, showcasing potential transformations within the sector. Two key scenarios aimed at limiting warming to 1.5°C with minimal overshoot focus on deep renewable energy integration and electrification, or reducing demand.
In these scenarios, emission reductions of 80% and 90% in the transport sector by 2050 are projected. However, these reductions may not be uniform across regions globally. While emissions from high income countries, Eastern Europe and West Central Asian countries are expected to decrease by 2050 in scenarios aligned with a 1.5°C goal, other regions like Africa, Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East could experience increases in some scenarios.
The scenarios literature indicates that fuel and technology shifts are crucial to reducing carbon emissions to meet temperature goals. In general terms, electrification tends to play the key role in land-based transport, but biofuels and hydrogen (and derivatives) could play a role in decarbonisation of freight in some contexts. Biofuels and hydrogen (and derivatives) are likely more prominent in shipping and aviation. The shifts towards these alternative fuels must occur alongside shifts towards clean technologies in other sectors.
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Climate Foresight is published by the CMCC Foundation , a research center that develops models and predictions to study the interaction between changes in the climate system and social, economic and environmental changes. Climate Foresight is an observatory on tomorrow, a digital magazine that collects ideas, interviews, articles, art performances, and multimedia to tell the stories of the future.
